Kroker Equity Research — 2025 Annual Letter
December 31, 2025
Dear friends and fellow investors,
As the year draws to a close, I find myself reflecting on a remarkable 12 months in the markets and in our writing journey. 2025 will be remembered not only for its unpredictable economic backdrop and strong equity returns, but also for the maturation of Kroker Equity Research into a community of thoughtful, long-term investors.
Equity Markets in 2025 — A Year of Resilience and Rotation
Global equity markets delivered solid returns in 2025, defying the headwinds that accompanied geopolitics, tariffs, and lingering economic uncertainty. Across the United States and Europe, investors navigated a shifting landscape in which growth, value, and macro catalysts each had their moments.
In the United States, major indices finished the year significantly higher. The S&P 500 ended 2025 with double-digit gains — up roughly 17 % on the year — after briefly dipping in late December amid seasonal liquidity low and some profit-taking in tech names. The market demonstrated its resilience, completing its eighth consecutive monthly rise at one point.
A defining theme of the U.S. market was the ongoing dominance of AI and mega-cap technology, a narrative that shaped both returns and risks. The leadership of a handful of technology giants continued to broaden, contributing disproportionately to market performance. This concentration has drawn comparisons to past bubbles and prompted active debate about valuation sustainability, especially as AI-related stocks propelled significant gains and broad market exposure.
A noteworthy structural trend was the outperformance of large U.S. banks, which collectively added hundreds of billions in market value. Deregulatory shifts helped spur this growth, highlighting how policy can materially shape sector-level returns.
Across the Atlantic, European equity markets also turned in a strong performance in 2025. The STOXX 600 traded near record levels as banks, commodities, and defense stocks led the charge. Supportive monetary policy, selective fiscal stimulus — particularly in Germany — and improving earnings helped underpin investor confidence.
Europe’s story was nuanced. Valuations remained attractive relative to the U.S., prompting some capital flows into regions where earnings prospects had previously been overlooked. This shift reflects a broader recognition that Europe can offer diversified, value-oriented opportunities outside the narrow concentration of U.S. large-cap tech.
Despite strong annual results, markets were not without turmoil. A sharp sell-off earlier in the year — triggered by the introduction of sweeping tariff policies — tested investor conviction and underscored the persistent influence of macroeconomic and political risks. Yet, equity benchmarks managed to recoup losses and finish the year in positive territory.
Reflections on the Kroker Equity Research Journey
When I launched Kroker Equity Research, the goal was simple: provide independent, fundamentals-driven analysis rooted in long-term value investing rather than short-term noise. Looking back at the published pieces this year, several themes stand out:
1. Consistency over Hype.
We built our newsletter on thoughtful analysis — stock picks grounded in business quality, valuation discipline, and a clear investment thesis — rather than chasing headlines. Readers have responded positively to this approach, growing our subscriber community meaningfully while keeping substance over noise.
2. Education through Exploration.
From deep dives into individual companies to broader market insights, we aimed to help readers think like long-term stewards of capital, not short-term traders.
3. Curating Value through Curation.
Our stock analysis and curated reads reflected a core belief: good investing is as much about sorting signal from noise as it is about individual selection. Seeing Kroker Equity Research cited among top Substacks by readers and peers reinforced that we’re contributing something distinctive.
This year’s progression confirmed that independent research matters — especially in an era when markets are shaped by policy shifts, technological disruption, and rapidly evolving investor sentiment.
Looking Ahead
As we enter 2026, a few guiding principles will remain at the heart of our work:
✔ Seek durable competitive advantages in businesses with clear long-term growth prospects.
✔ Maintain valuation discipline, especially when markets price premium expectations into future growth.
✔ Stay humble in forecasting, and aggressive only in evaluating evidence, not predictions.
Markets will always surprise us. Returns are never linear, and risk is always present. But as investors anchored in fundamentals, we have the greatest chance of compounding real wealth over decades rather than quarters.
Thank you for reading, engaging, and investing your time and trust in Kroker Equity Research. I look forward to another year of shared curiosity and disciplined analysis.
Yours in long-term thinking,
— Bernhard
"A noteworthy structural trend was the outperformance of large U.S. banks, which collectively added hundreds of billions in market value." This is so useless! Just quite the performance! Does the average reader knows the market capitalisation of the sector and, thus, can compute the rough performance range based on the addition of a few hundred of billions"?
(Just being constructive here I hope!)