Kroker Equity Research

Kroker Equity Research

Share this post

Kroker Equity Research
Kroker Equity Research
#84 MercadoLibre - Stock Analysis
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More

#84 MercadoLibre - Stock Analysis

Latin America’s E-commerce Champion for the Long Run

Kroker Equity Research's avatar
Kroker Equity Research
Apr 06, 2025
∙ Paid
5

Share this post

Kroker Equity Research
Kroker Equity Research
#84 MercadoLibre - Stock Analysis
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
3
Share

MercadoLibre: Latin America’s E-commerce Champion for the Long Run

MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) is often called the “Amazon of Latin America,” but that nickname only scratches the surface. Over 25 years since its founding, this Argentine-born, Montevideo-headquartered company has grown into a digital powerhouse that dominates online shopping and fintech across the region. In this deep dive, we’ll explore what MercadoLibre does, how it makes money, its latest financial performance, and the investment outlook – all in a casual but informative tone for long-term investors.

MercadoLibre at a Glance: The Backbone of Latin America’s Digital Economy

MercadoLibre (literally “free market” in Spanish) was founded in 1999 by Marcos Galperin in a Buenos Aires garage. Fast forward to today, and it’s the largest online commerce ecosystem in Latin America, operating in 18 countries with over 84,000 employees. Think of MercadoLibre as an integrated platform that combines e-commerce, digital payments, logistics, and more into one cohesive ecosystem.

At its core, MercadoLibre runs an online marketplace where individuals and businesses buy and sell products – from electronics and apparel to groceries and cars. It’s the region’s most popular e-commerce site by far, attracting over 100 million active buyers annually. In countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, MercadoLibre has become nearly synonymous with online shopping, providing a trusted platform in a region that once lacked e-commerce infrastructure. Its role in Latin America’s digital economy is huge: by bringing commerce online, it has helped digitize retail and reduce friction in economies that historically relied on cash and informal transactions. It’s not an exaggeration to say MercadoLibre has been a driving force in Latin America’s digital transformation.

But MercadoLibre is more than just an eBay/Amazon-style marketplace. Over time, it built a suite of complementary services:

  • Mercado Pago – a fintech arm offering digital wallets, payment processing, and banking services.

  • Mercado Crédito – a lending program providing credit to buyers and sellers.

  • Mercado Envíos – an in-house logistics network ensuring products get delivered quickly.

  • Mercado Ads – an advertising platform for brands and sellers to promote products on MercadoLibre’s sites.

  • Mercado Shops, Mercado Libre Classifieds (VIS) – tools for setting up online storefronts and listing vehicles or real estate.

This “everything” approach makes MercadoLibre a one-stop digital ecosystem. Users can browse and purchase products, pay through MercadoLibre’s payment system, get items shipped via MercadoLibre’s logistics, and even take out a small loan – all within the company’s platforms. By offering this complete bundle, MercadoLibre has woven itself into the daily commercial life of millions. It enables e-commerce and digital financial services for users by delivering a complete suite of technology solutions tailored to local needs. In short, it’s a Latin American digital titan – part Amazon, part PayPal, part FedEx, with a dash of fintech startup for good measure.

2024 Financial Highlights: Strong Growth and Improving Profitability

MercadoLibre’s latest results underscore its momentum. 2024 was a banner year, with the company posting record numbers on both the top and bottom line. According to its annual report and earnings release, MercadoLibre’s net revenue reached about $21 billion in 2024, a jump of 38% year-over-year in US dollar terms. (On a currency-neutral basis, revenue growth was over 100% YoY – reflecting how local currency devaluations masked even higher underlying growth.) This is no small feat for a company that did ~$15 billion in 2023 sales; MercadoLibre is growing at a pace that outstrips many global e-commerce players.

Revenues grew nearly tenfold from $2.3B in 2019 to $20.8B in 2024. While growth rates slowed from a 77.88% YoY peak in 2021 to 37.53% in 2024, absolute revenue expansion remains strong.

Perhaps more impressively for long-term investors, MercadoLibre has become solidly profitable while sustaining this growth. Operating income in 2024 was $2.6 billion (a 12.7% operating margin) and net income was $1.9 billion (9.2% net margin). In other words, after years of reinvesting heavily, the company is now balancing growth with healthy profits. Profitability roughly doubled versus the prior year, signaling that scale and efficiency gains (like better cost control and higher-margin revenue streams) are kicking in. The fourth quarter of 2024 was particularly strong – MercadoLibre delivered $6.1 billion in Q4 revenue (up 37% YoY) and a record $639 million in quarterly net income. The company’s 25th anniversary year ended with serious momentum.

Operating income rose from a loss in 2019 to $2.63B in 2024. Despite a slight dip in margin from 14.61% to 12.66% in the final year, MELI maintained solid operating performance.

Let’s break down some key metrics from 2024:

  • Marketplace Volume: Gross merchandise volume (GMV), the total value of items sold across MercadoLibre’s platforms, hit $51.5 billion for 2024. This was up about 15% from the prior year in USD, despite economic headwinds in some markets. In Q4 alone, GMV was $14.5B (up 8% YoY), and the number of items sold jumped 27% YoY – indicating more transactions of lower average value, possibly as consumers bought more frequently, including everyday items. Notably, MercadoLibre surpassed 100 million unique active buyers over the course of the year for the first time. That’s a huge user base, roughly equivalent to nearly half of Latin America’s internet users, and a testament to its ubiquity in the region.

  • Fintech Volume: Mercado Pago’s platform saw Total Payment Volume (TPV) of $197 billion in 2024, up 34% YoY. This includes payments both on MercadoLibre’s marketplaces and off-platform (e.g. using MercadoPago at third-party merchants or in stores). By year-end, Mercado Pago had 61 million monthly active fintech users – reflecting rapid adoption of its digital wallet, QR payments, and credit card offerings. The credit portfolio reached $6.6B (up 74% YoY) as Mercado Crédito expanded loans and credit card issuance. Clearly, fintech is becoming a massive business in its own right for MELI.

  • Revenue Mix: Out of the $21B revenue, roughly $12.2B came from commerce and $8.6B from fintech services. Commerce revenue (which includes marketplace fees, commissions, shipping fees, ads, etc.) grew ~48% in 2024 – faster than GMV, implying the company is monetizing transactions more effectively (through higher take rates, advertising, etc.). Fintech revenue (mainly payment fees, transaction take rates, and interest on loans) grew ~25%. Commerce still makes up the majority of revenue (~58%), but fintech is a substantial 40%+ and growing. This diversified growth engine – both e-commerce and fintech firing together – is relatively unique and one of MercadoLibre’s strengths.

  • Logistics Scale: Mercado Envíos handled an astounding 1.8 billion items shipped in 2024. Shipping volume grew as MercadoLibre opened 10 new fulfillment centers during the year and expanded free shipping offers. Delivery got faster too: about 49% of orders were delivered within 24 hours (same or next day), which is groundbreaking in Latin America where logistics infrastructure has traditionally lagged. Management’s heavy investment in warehouses, fleets, and optimization is paying off in both customer satisfaction and operational efficiency.

MercadoLibre’s return on capital has steadily improved from -4.79% in 2019 to 23.01% in 2024, signaling increasingly efficient use of capital to generate profits.

Overall, 2024’s results paint a picture of a company hitting a sweet spot: high growth, improving margins, and strengthening network effects. MercadoLibre has come out of the pandemic era larger, more profitable, and arguably more entrenched in consumers’ lives than ever. It’s worth noting that these gains came despite challenges like high inflation in certain markets (e.g. triple-digit inflation in Argentina) and currency volatility. In fact, MercadoLibre’s ability to grow 101% FX-neutral vs. 38% in USD shows it can outpace macroeconomic turbulence by sheer volume growth. Now, let’s dig into how MercadoLibre’s business model works – across e-commerce, fintech, logistics, and advertising – and what gives it an edge.

Free cash flow rose from $314M in 2019 to over $7B in 2024, with margins expanding from 13.69% to 33.96%. This reflects strong operational leverage and disciplined cost control.

Breaking Down MercadoLibre’s Business Model and Ecosystem

MercadoLibre’s business can be thought of as several interlocking parts, each reinforcing the other. The company itself highlights the synergy between its commerce platform and fintech platform – more e-commerce activity drives more payments volume, and offering fintech products brings more buyers and sellers into the online marketplace. It’s a virtuous cycle. We’ll examine the core segments below:

1. E-commerce Marketplace – “Latin America’s Amazon” (and eBay rolled into one)

The heart of MercadoLibre is its third-party online marketplace. Similar to eBay or Amazon’s marketplace, MercadoLibre allows millions of sellers – from individual casual sellers to small businesses to major brands – to list products and reach a broad audience of buyers. The company provides the platform and charges fees (listing fees, transaction commissions, shipping fees, etc.) when sales occur. It’s a highly scalable, asset-light model (MercadoLibre generally doesn’t own the inventory being sold). Over the years, the marketplace has evolved from auction-style listings in the early 2000s to a fixed-price “buy now” model that dominates today.

MercadoLibre’s marketplace is the most visited e-commerce site in Latin America, outpacing global competitors. In Brazil – the region’s largest economy – MercadoLibre has about a 35% e-commerce market share, reportedly well ahead of Amazon, which is the second-largest player by GMV in Brazil. The appeal of MercadoLibre’s platform comes from its strong network effects: shoppers come because it has the widest product selection and competitive prices, and sellers come because that’s where the shoppers are. By continuously improving the user experience (search functionality, product reviews, buyer protection) and adding new categories (like groceries and apparel), MercadoLibre keeps shoppers engaged and spending more. For example, in 2024 the company rolled out enhancements like a dedicated supermarket storefront and better fashion discovery tools, making it easier to buy everyday essentials on the platform.

A key element of building trust in e-commerce is handling payments safely – which is why MercadoLibre created Mercado Pago (more on that soon) – and handling fulfillment. Initially, MercadoLibre relied on third-party carriers and had limited control over shipping. As e-commerce matured, it became clear that logistics is the backbone of the online shopping experience. So MercadoLibre invested heavily in Mercado Envíos, its logistics arm, which now manages warehousing, packing, and delivery for a huge portion of the orders. This has been transformative: faster and more reliable shipping attracts more customers and sellers, feeding back into marketplace growth. In short, MercadoLibre’s marketplace is bolstered by an Amazon-like fulfillment capability, tailored to the challenges of Latin America (where addressing and delivery can be tricky). The result is a robust e-commerce engine that continues to gain share in its markets.

2. Fintech (Mercado Pago & Mercado Crédito) – Banking the Unbanked

If MercadoLibre’s marketplace is the Amazon of LatAm, Mercado Pago is its PayPal, Square, and digital bank all rolled into one. Launched in 2003 originally as an escrow payment system for the marketplace, Mercado Pago has grown into a comprehensive fintech platform serving both marketplace users and the general population. Its offerings include online checkout for e-commerce, a mobile wallet app, QR code payments for in-person transactions, point-of-sale devices for merchants, and even financial services like credit lines, insurance, and investment products.

Mercado Pago’s growth has been explosive. As of Q4 2024, it had 61 million monthly active users across Latin America – people using it to pay bills, send money, buy things online, and more. Notably, nearly two-thirds of the payment volume on Mercado Pago now comes from outside MercadoLibre’s own e-commerce platform. That means millions are using the Mercado Pago app to pay at restaurants, supermarkets, or other websites and apps, not just for MercadoLibre purchases. This off-platform expansion has turned Mercado Pago into one of the leading digital wallets in the region, competing with banks and dedicated fintechs. In countries like Brazil, you’ll find street vendors accepting Mercado Pago QR codes and people using the app as a primary bank account alternative.

One of Mercado Pago’s clever strategies is leveraging its in-house financial licenses to reduce reliance on traditional banks. It issues its own branded debit and credit cards and processes transactions end-to-end, which lets it save on fees and earn a bigger cut of payments. Essentially, MercadoLibre saw an opportunity in Latin America’s underbanked population – about a quarter of the region’s people have little or no access to bank accounts – and positioned Mercado Pago to fill that gap. By offering convenience (easy digital payments) and better yields (e.g. Mercado Pago lets users earn interest on wallet balances, outpacing paltry checking account rates, it has attracted tens of millions of users who might not have strong ties to legacy banks. This gives MercadoLibre a fintech user base rivaling the region’s biggest banks (for perspective, Brazilian fintech Nubank has around 70 million users; Mercado Pago is in that league).

Mercado Crédito, the credit arm, takes the fintech strategy further by offering loans to both consumers and merchants on the platform. When small business sellers like Wagner and Mariana in Brazil needed capital to grow their shop, MercadoLibre was able to approve a loan almost instantly based on their sales history – no bank paperwork required. By the end of 2024, MercadoLibre’s credit portfolio reached $6.6 billion, up 74%, as more users tapped into these loans and the company issued more of its own credit cards. The data advantage here is huge: MercadoLibre has years of transaction data on merchants and buyers, allowing it to underwrite loans with a level of insight that traditional lenders can’t easily match. As CEO Galperin puts it, “Because we have so much information on these people, we feel very comfortable providing them loans”. And critically, when customers have access to credit, they often turn around and spend it on MercadoLibre’s marketplaces – creating a flywheel effect of more sales, which brings more data and fees to MercadoLibre.

It’s worth noting that while MercadoLibre is dominant in e-commerce, in fintech it faces stiff competition from specialized players. For example, Brazil’s Nubank (a purely digital bank) has grown even faster in banking services, and other startups like Argentina’s Ualá are vying for the unbanked segment. Mercado Pago is still a challenger in some financial categories (e.g. Nubank leads in credit cards in Brazil). Even so, MercadoLibre’s ability to cross-promote fintech to its huge commerce user base gives it a powerful edge. The company’s goal is to become a major financial hub for Latin Americans shifting away from cash. In Galperin’s words, “The idea is to give each user a private banker of their own” through Mercado Pago. That strategy seems to be working – fintech revenues grew ~30% in 2024 and now make up around 40% of total company sales. As more people adopt digital wallets and online payments (a trend that’s still in early innings in LatAm, compared to say Asia or the U.S., MercadoLibre stands to benefit immensely.

Of course, offering credit isn’t without risk – credit losses can bite if loans default. We’ll discuss those risks later, but so far MercadoLibre has managed credit quality reasonably, with some uptick in non-performing loans (NPLs) that it claims are under control. The fintech segment adds an extra layer of growth and complexity to MercadoLibre’s model, making it more than just an e-commerce company.

3. Logistics (Mercado Envíos) – Speeding Up Delivery to Prime Levels

One of MercadoLibre’s unsung heroes is Mercado Envíos, its logistics and delivery network. In a region where delivering a package across town could once take a week, MercadoLibre has invested to cut that down dramatically. The company has built out a network of fulfillment centers, distribution hubs, and last-mile delivery services (often partnering with local couriers and even gig drivers) to handle the immense volume of orders from its marketplace. By 2024, they operated dozens of warehouses (10 new ones opened in 2024 alone) and had advanced sorting and routing tech to optimize deliveries.

The results speak for themselves: nearly 50% of all MercadoLibre shipments now arrive within 24 hours of purchase. That is approaching the standard set by Amazon Prime in the U.S., and it’s a game-changer in Latin America. Fast, reliable shipping removes one of the biggest friction points for e-commerce in the region. Shoppers are more likely to buy online if they trust the delivery process, and MercadoLibre’s investments here have built a formidable moat. Competing as a new entrant would require billions in infrastructure to match MELI’s reach and efficiency.

Mercado Envíos also operates MELI Places (physical pickup and drop-off locations) and flex logistics where local stores or couriers can help with delivery. Essentially, MercadoLibre has adapted to each country’s realities – for example, working around unreliable national postal services by creating its own network. It even started leveraging drones and autonomous vehicles in pilot programs for delivery to remote areas. All this is aimed at expanding MercadoLibre’s reach to every corner of the region in a cost-effective way.

From an investor standpoint, logistics is typically a lower-margin, cost-intensive part of e-commerce. MercadoLibre has acknowledged that fulfilling and shipping orders isn’t a big profit center itself – often the shipping fees just offset the costs. However, the payoff comes in the form of customer loyalty and higher sales. By owning the logistics experience, MercadoLibre ensures that buyers are happy (which keeps them coming back) and sellers have confidence their goods will get to customers. It’s a strategic investment in competitive advantage rather than a direct profit engine. And importantly, now that volumes are massive, MercadoLibre can drive efficiency and economies of scale in logistics, gradually improving its cost per package. In 2024, management noted record efficiencies in fulfillment as volumes grew.

We can think of Mercado Envíos as the glue holding the marketplace together – it turns online orders into delivered reality. It’s hard to quantify how valuable this is, but consider that Amazon took a similar path: heavy spending on warehouses and shipping for years, which eventually built an almost unassailable lead. MercadoLibre is doing the same in its home turf, which should help defend against global competitors. In fact, Amazon itself relies on some of MercadoLibre’s logistics in places – reportedly, even MercadoLibre’s biggest rival Amazon uses MELI’s shipping network in certain LatAm markets because it’s so well-developed. That speaks volumes (pun intended) about MercadoLibre’s logistics prowess.

4. Advertising (Mercado Ads) – An Emerging High-Margin Revenue Stream

As MercadoLibre’s e-commerce platform matured, it unlocked a lucrative side business: digital advertising. With millions of users searching for products, browsing categories, and making purchases, MercadoLibre’s sites are prime real estate for sellers and brands to promote their offerings. Thus Mercado Ads was born – a suite of advertising tools that allow sellers to sponsor product listings, buy banner ads, and display targeted recommendations to shoppers.

While still relatively nascent, Mercado Ads has been growing rapidly. In 2024, MercadoLibre’s advertising revenue was on track to roughly $1 billion – a tiny fraction of what Amazon makes in ads globally, but a significant addition to MercadoLibre’s revenue mix. In the third quarter of 2024, for example, MercadoLibre’s ad revenue grew 37% year-over-year, far outpacing overall GMV growth, and reached about 2% of GMV (Amazon’s advertising is ~5% of its GMV by comparison). This suggests plenty of room for Mercado Ads to expand. Every percentage point increase in ad “penetration” (ads as a share of platform sales) directly lifts MercadoLibre’s top line and bottom line, because advertising is a high-margin business (estimated 70-80% profit margin). Once the infrastructure is in place, each extra ad sold is mostly profit.

For investors, this is an exciting piece of the puzzle because it means MercadoLibre can monetize its user base in ways beyond just transaction fees. Ads are effectively extra gravy – they don’t discourage users (if relevant and helpful) and they allow sellers to boost visibility, which can increase sales overall. In the 2024 holiday season (e.g. Black Friday), Mercado Ads saw strong demand as brands paid to reach the massive audience on MercadoLibre. The company has also been tying up with content providers like Disney to enrich its advertising and loyalty offerings, possibly through its new Mercado Play feature (a free streaming hub within MercadoLibre’s ecosystem). This kind of innovation – mixing shopping and entertainment – can increase user engagement, giving MercadoLibre more advertising opportunities and user data.

The bottom line is that Mercado Ads, while a smaller segment today, could become a significant growth and profit driver tomorrow. If MercadoLibre can double or triple its ad revenue over the next few years (not unreasonable, given how underpenetrated it is relative to developed-market peers), those dollars drop to the bottom line at high margin. So when you consider MercadoLibre’s long-term earnings power, the continued ramp-up of advertising is a key factor.

5. Other Services & Ecosystem Effects

MercadoLibre’s ecosystem doesn’t stop at the big four segments above. The company has a history of expanding into adjacent services that enhance its core business:

  • Mercado Shops: A solution that allows merchants to set up their own branded web stores while leveraging MercadoLibre’s infrastructure (payments, shipping, etc.). This is akin to Shopify-like services and helps lock merchants into the MercadoLibre ecosystem for all their online sales.

  • Mercado Libre Classifieds (VIS): Platforms for listing vehicles, real estate, and services. These are more like Craigslist or classifieds models. While they may not generate as much revenue as the core marketplace (often these are free or freemium listings), they extend MercadoLibre’s brand and user reach. Someone looking for a car or apartment might start on MercadoLibre’s classifieds and eventually use Mercado Pago or become a marketplace shopper for other goods.

  • Mercado Play: Introduced recently, this is a digital content section within MercadoLibre’s app offering free streaming of movies and shows via partnerships (e.g., Disney+ content). The goal here is to increase app engagement – if users open the MercadoLibre app daily to watch videos or play games, they’re more likely to also shop or use the fintech services. It’s similar to how Sea Ltd integrated gaming with e-commerce in Asia, or how Amazon uses Prime Video to retain Prime subscribers. MercadoLibre is experimenting with these tactics to bolster its ecosystem’s stickiness.

All these services feed into one another. MercadoLibre often touts the competitive advantage of its ecosystem: the ability to offer a “one-stop shop” digital life. As their CFO put it, being Latin Americans building for Latin America, they understand the local challenges – whether it’s a cash-based culture or logistical hurdles – and tailor solutions accordingly. A user who uses Mercado Pago to pay their bills might be more likely to shop on MercadoLibre, and a merchant who uses Mercado Envíos to deliver goods might sign up for a loan from Mercado Crédito to stock more inventory. This interconnectedness creates a flywheel where each part of the business reinforces the others.

Before we move on, let’s summarize MercadoLibre’s key strengths and weaknesses as they pertain to its business model:

Strengths / Competitive Advantages:

  • Market Leadership & Brand: MercadoLibre is the e-commerce market leader in Latin America by a wide margin. Its brand is trusted, which is crucial in markets where trust in online transactions wasn’t always a given. Being first-to-scale (founded in 1999) gave it a network effect that’s hard to break.

  • Integrated Ecosystem: Few competitors offer the breadth of services that MercadoLibre does in one platform. Its combination of marketplace + payments + logistics + credit + ads creates high switching costs. This ecosystem approach is a “tremendous competitive advantage” according to CEO Galperin because the businesses feed each other – “When you have more financing, e-commerce grows. And vice versa.”.

  • Logistics Infrastructure: Mercado Envíos provides Amazon-level fulfillment speed in markets where that was unheard of. This not only improves customer experience but also would require a massive investment for any rival to replicate. It’s a moat built on warehouses, technology, and operational know-how.

  • Local Expertise: MercadoLibre has navigated the region’s challenges (from currency controls to preference for cash payments) by localizing solutions. For example, it enabled cash payments via convenience stores for online purchases and offered installment payment options, recognizing local consumer needs. Being a Latin American company, it adapted global e-commerce concepts to the local context better than outsiders initially could.

  • Scale and Data: With over 100 million buyers and 61 million fintech users, MercadoLibre has an unparalleled data trove on consumer behavior in LatAm. This data fuels better credit scoring (reducing loan risk), more effective advertising targeting, and insights into new product opportunities. Scale also gives it purchasing power and efficiency (for instance, bulk shipping contracts, or negotiating content deals for Mercado Play).

  • Financial Discipline: After years of reinvestment, MercadoLibre is now showing it can deliver profits and cash flow. This gives it internal resources to fund expansion (the company still often plows earnings back into new initiatives) and a cushion to weather downturns. It also has access to external financing – e.g. a recent deal where JP Morgan provided $250 million to boost Mercado Pago’s lending in Mexico – indicating lenders have confidence in MELI’s prospects.

Weaknesses / Risks:

  • Intense Competition: While MercadoLibre is ahead, global giants like Amazon are investing heavily to gain ground. Amazon is now #2 in Brazil’s e-commerce and remains a formidable long-term threat with virtually unlimited resources and expertise. Other competitors include regional players (e.g. Magazine Luiza in Brazil, or Shopee which made a push into Brazil and niche vertical platforms. In fintech, MercadoPago faces competition from dedicated fintechs and neo-banks – for example, Nubank in Brazil has a massive user base and aggressive growth. Competition could pressure MercadoLibre’s market share or force it to spend more on marketing and promotions to defend its turf.

  • Regulatory and Political Risks: Operating in ~18 countries means navigating a patchwork of regulations – especially in finance. MercadoLibre has to comply with banking and lending regulations, which could tighten and raise costs or limit certain activities (for instance, caps on interest rates or more stringent fintech licensing requirements). There’s also always a risk of protectionist policies or economic measures (like Argentina’s past capital controls) that can impact operations. Being the biggest player can draw regulatory attention, possibly in the form of antitrust scrutiny down the line, though so far MercadoLibre’s competition is still alive and well. Political instability or policy shifts in key markets (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico) can quickly change the business environment. For example, changes in taxation of digital services or import duties could affect e-commerce economics.

  • Macro and Currency Exposure: MercadoLibre’s fortunes are tied to Latin America’s economies, which have historically been volatile. High inflation, recessions, or currency devaluations can hit consumer spending and MELI’s financials. A striking example is Argentina, where inflation exceeded 250% in 2024. While MercadoLibre grew impressively despite that, such extreme conditions can erode profit margins (through cost increases) and reduce reported USD revenue (when currencies depreciate). The company reports in U.S. dollars, so a weak Argentine peso or Brazilian real can significantly drag growth when translated to USD. Investors have to expect ups and downs due to macro factors beyond management’s control.

  • Credit Risk: As MercadoLibre expands its credit portfolio, it takes on the risk of borrower defaults. In an economic downturn or if interest rates rise sharply, default rates could spike. In mid-2024, for instance, MercadoLibre’s non-performing loans (NPLs) were around 18.5% – quite high, though partly a result of very rapid loan growth and the high-rate environment. The company says these levels are manageable and has tightened credit models, but lending will always carry risk. A wave of defaults could not only hurt financial results but also force MELI to pull back on lending (which could, in turn, slow down e-commerce spending by cash-strapped consumers). Essentially, MELI now has some bank-like risk on its balance sheet that investors must monitor.

  • Execution Challenges: MercadoLibre is doing a lot – e-commerce, fintech, logistics, new initiatives – across many countries. Execution missteps are a risk as the company stretches into new areas. Past expansions (like entering new countries or launching new services) haven’t all been smooth, though the company has a good track record overall. Still, scaling operations and customer support in so many areas can strain management. There’s also the challenge of talent and culture: retaining top tech talent and managing such a large workforce (84k employees) is no small task. Any slowdown in innovation could give competitors an opening.

  • Valuation (High Expectations): We’ll dive into this next – but it’s worth flagging that MercadoLibre’s stock carries high expectations. The company is priced for continued strong growth and market dominance. If the company were to stumble in growth or margins, the stock could be volatile. This isn’t a business risk per se, but it’s a risk for investors who might overpay if they ignore the execution and macro risks mentioned above.

With those strengths and challenges in mind, what’s the current investment outlook for MercadoLibre? Let’s analyze its valuation and the bull vs. bear case for this stock.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Kroker Equity Research to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Bernhard Kroker
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More