#89 Kri-Kri - Update after FY2024 results
Strong Sales Growth and a Resilient Outlook
Kri-Kri FY 2024 – Strong Sales Growth and a Resilient Outlook
FY 2024 Results: Robust Growth with Slight Margin Squeeze
Kri-Kri Milk Industry S.A., a Greek dairy company known for its yogurt and ice cream, delivered strong top-line growth in its fiscal year 2024 results. Revenues hit €256.4 million, an 18.5% increase from €216.3 million in 2023. This impressive jump in sales was driven primarily by booming yogurt exports and solid performance in ice cream. Net income came in at €34.5 million, up about 7% year-on-year (from €32.3 million in 2023). Earnings per share (EPS) likewise rose to €1.05 (vs €0.98 last year). However, profit growth didn’t keep pace with revenue – the net profit margin dipped slightly to 14% in 2024 from about 15% in 2023. This margin compression reflects higher costs and a strategic price reduction in the domestic market, which we’ll discuss later.
Key FY 2024 figures:
Revenue: €256.4 million (up 18.5% year-on-year)
Net income: €34.5 million (up 7.1% year-on-year)
Profit margin: ~14% (down from ~15% in FY 2023 due to higher expenses)
EPS: €1.05 (up from €0.98 in FY 2023)
While revenue slightly beat analyst expectations (ahead by ~1.1%), earnings fell short (EPS ~11% below forecasts). In other words, sales momentum was excellent – even a bit better than anticipated – but profits were a bit lower than hoped, implying costs rose faster than expected. In fact, Kri-Kri’s gross profit margin declined to about 29.7% in 2024 from 33.5% in 2023, indicating rising input or production costs. Management attributed the operational profit dip primarily to higher raw milk prices in the second half of 2024, which squeezed margins.
Despite the cost pressures, net income still increased thanks in part to a one-off benefit: Kri-Kri recognized tax credits of €5.28 million in 2024 (versus only €1.01 million in 2023) related to its investment initiatives under Greece’s development law. This tax break helped boost after-tax profits and offset the softer operating result. Without it, net profit would have been roughly flat or slightly down.
On the operational side, EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) was €42.6 million, down from €45.1 million in 2023. Pre-tax profit (EBT) likewise slipped to €37.57 million (vs €40.30 million in 2023), consistent with the margin pressure narrative. In summary, FY 2024 saw record-high sales and resilient net earnings, but slightly thinner margins due to cost inflation. Overall, Kri-Kri demonstrated it can grow the top line robustly even in a challenging cost environment, and it used tax incentives to maintain bottom-line growth.
What Drove the Growth? Yogurt Exports Lead the Charge
Drilling down into segments, yogurt remains Kri-Kri’s core business, and 2024 was all about export growth in this segment. The company’s sales of yogurt grew 18.2% in value (and 19.5% in volume) for the year. Notably, international yogurt sales surged by 32.5%, exceeding €129 million in revenue. Kri-Kri made significant inroads in key markets like the United Kingdom (+43% sales) and Italy (+17%), and even entered new markets such as France. Clearly, demand for Greek yogurt abroad is a major growth engine. By contrast, in the domestic Greek market, yogurt sales were flat at ~€76 million in 2024. The volume of yogurt sold domestically actually rose by 4.5%, but Kri-Kri lowered prices to support consumers amid high inflation, resulting in no value growth at home. Essentially, Greek shoppers bought more yogurt, but paid less per unit as Kri-Kri strategically absorbed some price pressure to stay competitive.
This pricing move reflects the intense competition and consumer shifts in Greece. With inflation squeezing wallets, many consumers have shifted towards private-label (store brand) yogurts as value-for-money options. Kri-Kri is actually well positioned here: it is the largest producer of private-label yogurt in the Greek market. So even as its own branded yogurts lost a bit of market share in 2024 (Kri-Kri’s brand fell by 1.2 percentage points to a 14.9% market share in value, though still holding the #2 position), the company likely picked up volume by manufacturing supermarket brands. In other words, Kri-Kri managed to benefit from the private-label trend that hurt its branded sales, effectively hedging its bets in the domestic market.
On the ice cream side of the business, Kri-Kri also saw healthy growth, albeit with some competitive challenges. Domestic ice cream sales rose ~13.4% to €36.7 million in 2024 (from €32.3m in 2023), helped by a strong summer season and perhaps a rebound in tourism footfall at retail outlets. However, Kri-Kri’s market share in Greek ice cream dipped slightly – its value share fell by 0.4 points to 14.0%, and volume share by 1.1 points to 11.6%. This suggests the overall ice cream market in Greece grew and competitors (including possibly private labels or multinationals) gained ground. Still, Kri-Kri managed to grow its own sales nicely. The company is responding by expanding its distribution network, especially focusing on more points of sale (like tourist areas and small outlets) to claw back share.
Importantly, exports are not just about yogurt – Kri-Kri is also trying to push ice cream internationally. A highlight of 2024 was the launch of Kri-Kri’s “Greek frozen yogurt” ice cream in the United States. In September 2024, the company introduced this product line in the U.S., and by early 2025 it was available in 250 stores (with a goal of reaching 300 stores, though they admit they are a bit behind that target). Entering the U.S. market is a notable development: it’s a huge and competitive arena, but if Kri-Kri’s frozen yogurt ice cream (blending the indulgence of ice cream with the health halo of yogurt) finds a niche, it could open a significant growth frontier. This move aligns with the company’s strategy to boost exports, using innovative products that leverage its Greek yogurt expertise.
To sum up the FY 2024 performance drivers: export growth (especially yogurt in Europe) was the standout, domestic volumes were solid but pricing was adjusted to sustain demand, and the ice cream segment contributed double-digit growth as well. Kri-Kri’s diversified approach – serving both its own brand and private label clients, and operating in both yogurt and ice cream categories across multiple countries – helped it achieve robust sales gains despite a challenging inflationary backdrop.
Outlook for 2025 and Beyond: Chasing €300 Million and Global Markets
Looking ahead, Kri-Kri’s management is optimistic for 2025 and beyond. In fact, they have explicitly guided that sales could reach €300 million in 2025, which would be roughly +17% growth over 2024. Exports are expected to remain the key growth engine – management said that exports will be the “guide” driving that increase. Early signs are encouraging: Q1 2025 sales were up over 20% year-on-year, indicating momentum has carried into the new year.
The company anticipates holding its operating profitability at healthy levels, though not necessarily expanding it further in the immediate term. They forecast an EBIT margin in the 14–15% range for 2025, which is similar to 2024’s level. This suggests Kri-Kri is factoring in some continued cost pressures or investments that might cap margin expansion, even as volume grows. One likely headwind is the price of milk – as noted, milk prices rose in late 2024, and if they remain elevated or increase further in 2025, it could pressure margins. There are also broader macro uncertainties: the dairy industry globally has seen volatility in supply. (Interestingly, global milk production has been under some pressure recently – 2024 saw a decline in output in some regions, which helped push dairy prices up.) On the flip side, general food inflation in Europe has been easing – by mid-2024, food price inflation in the EU had dropped significantly from its peaks. If that trend continues, input cost increases may stabilize, and Kri-Kri might not need to cut prices further to support consumers.
Market trends that will influence Kri-Kri’s outlook include consumer behavior in an inflationary environment and the competitive landscape. In Greece, if inflation moderates and wages improve, consumers might shift back towards branded products from private labels, which could help Kri-Kri’s branded yogurt sales. However, if economic conditions worsen, the private-label trend could strengthen, which is a double-edged sword for Kri-Kri (good for volume, tougher on margins). The Greek economy overall has been relatively resilient recently, and 2024 had a strong tourism season, benefiting consumer companies. A solid domestic economy in 2025 (boosting consumer confidence and tourism foot traffic) would be a tailwind for Kri-Kri’s domestic sales of both yogurt and ice cream.
Company strategy going forward is clear: invest in capacity, expand geographically, and innovate in products. Kri-Kri significantly ramped up its capital investments in 2023 and 2024, and this continues. In 2024, CAPEX was around €25 million, and for 2025 the plan is to invest another €21–25 million. These investments are aimed at increasing production capacity and technology upgrades in both the yogurt and ice cream plants. Essentially, Kri-Kri is building out the infrastructure to handle more volume, especially as exports climb. They have also invested in human resources – adding staff and training – to support this growth. Such capacity expansion projects, partly supported by government development incentives (hence those tax credits), should position Kri-Kri to meet rising demand without bottlenecks. By 2025, the company should start seeing the benefits of these investments in the form of higher output and potentially efficiency gains.
On the product and market development side, Kri-Kri is doubling down on what’s working. In yogurt, they plan to leverage their modern, high-capacity production facilities and cost advantages to grow sales. This likely means continuing to aggressively pursue private-label contracts with retailers (in Greece and perhaps abroad) while also marketing their branded yogurts’ strengths (like the use of 100% Greek milk) to consumers. Exports of yogurt will remain a priority – the demand for authentic Greek yogurt in foreign markets is a secular trend in Kri-Kri’s favor. They’ve established a strong foothold in the UK and Italy; growth there and expansion to markets like France, Sweden, Austria, Belgium (all cited as growth contributors) will continue. Entry into the U.S. market with frozen yogurt ice cream is a pilot that could be expanded if successful. It’s worth noting that Kri-Kri’s Greek Frozen Yogurt ice cream concept is central to their export push in ice cream – it’s a differentiated product that marries Greece’s yogurt reputation with a global ice cream treat, which could resonate with health-conscious ice cream lovers abroad. For 2025 and beyond, management explicitly mentioned boosting exports in ice cream as well, seeing “great opportunities” overseas in that segment.
In the domestic Greek market, Kri-Kri’s outlook involves defending and slowly growing share. In ice cream, they intend to increase the number of points of sale, focusing on tourist-heavy areas to capitalize on Greece’s booming tourism (which drives ice cream sales in summer). If they can widen distribution and maybe introduce new flavors (they have a huge variety, from traditional to innovative, as their product list shows), they can at least hold their #2 position and maybe gain share. In yogurt, the challenge is to maintain branded market share in the face of private-label growth – a strategy of highlighting quality (fresh Greek milk, etc.) and perhaps offering new functional or trendy yogurt varieties could help. Meanwhile, as the largest private-label producer, they likely aim to capture as much of that shifting volume as possible, effectively saying if the market’s going private-label, we’ll make that too. This could mean more partnerships with Greek supermarket chains and possibly producing for foreign retailers as well.
Macroeconomic influences to watch for 2025: global dairy prices, European consumer spending, and currency fluctuations. Kri-Kri operates mostly in euros (and some GBP for UK, maybe USD for U.S. venture), so currency risk is relatively limited, but any euro volatility could impact the competitiveness of Greek exports. The broader European dairy market growth is forecast around 4% annually, but Kri-Kri expects to outpace that significantly (their forecast ~12% annual growth for next 2 years). If Europe enters a stronger growth phase or if health trends boost yogurt consumption further, Kri-Kri stands to benefit disproportionately as it grabs share. Conversely, if a recession hits and consumers trade down heavily, Kri-Kri might see volume growth but with more of it being lower-margin private label – a scenario to monitor.
On balance, Kri-Kri’s outlook is bullish on growth: the €300m sales target for 2025, continued double-digit expansion thereafter, and confident investment in capacity all signal a company expecting demand for its products to keep rising. The main caution in the outlook is about maintaining margins – ensuring that growing sales actually translate to growing profits, which depends on controlling input costs and not eroding prices too far in competitive battles. Management’s guidance of 14-15% EBIT margin for 2025 suggests they are aiming to at least preserve current profitability levels while chasing higher revenue.
Bullish Investment Case: Why One Could Be Optimistic on Kri-Kri
From an investor’s perspective, the bullish case for Kri-Kri centers on its growth trajectory, market position, and financial health. Here are the key points that make Kri-Kri a compelling story for the bulls:
High Growth Rates (Outpacing Industry): Kri-Kri is growing revenue at a far faster clip than typical food industry players. It delivered ~19% sales growth in 2024 and is forecasting ~17% in 2025, whereas the European food industry averages low-single-digit growth. Analysts expect Kri-Kri to maintain ~12% annual revenue growth over the next two years, significantly above the ~4% European industry rate. This suggests Kri-Kri is capturing market share and expanding into new markets effectively – a sign of a company with strong momentum.
Exports and Market Expansion Fueling Performance: The bullish view sees Kri-Kri as a rising international player in dairy. Nearly half of 2023 sales were exports, and over 50% likely in 2024, with especially rapid growth in major markets like the UK and Italy. The company’s entry into new markets (France, U.S., etc.) indicates plenty of runway for expansion. If Kri-Kri continues to replicate its success in new geographies, sales could keep climbing at double digits for years. In short, Kri-Kri has moved beyond being just a Greek company – it’s becoming a regional European dairy contender with global aspirations, which can command a growth premium.
Strong Domestic Base and Dual Market Strategy: In Greece, Kri-Kri holds leading positions: #2 brand in yogurt (almost 15% market share) and a top ice cream player. Crucially, it also manufactures many of the private-label yogurts for Greek retailers. This dual strategy means Kri-Kri wins in its home market whether consumers buy its brand or opt for cheaper store brands, since Kri-Kri likely produces both. That provides a volume floor and resilience. The bullish case appreciates that Kri-Kri’s diversified approach (branded + private label, yogurt + ice cream) in its core market gives it a stable foundation to build on.
Operational Excellence and Cost Leadership: Except for the aberration in 2022, Kri-Kri has demonstrated solid profit margins and returns. Its gross margins bounced back to ~30%+ and EBIT margins ~15%, reflecting efficient production. The company’s plant is located in a low-cost region of Greece (Serres) with access to local milk, and it emphasizes economies of scale and modern tech. Bulls argue that Kri-Kri’s cost-efficient manufacturing and scale in yogurt give it a competitive edge, enabling it to profitably produce for itself and others. The fact that it could increase yogurt volume 15% in 2023 and dramatically improve margins shows it has turned scale into an advantage.
Clean Balance Sheet and Shareholder Returns: Kri-Kri’s negligible debt and strong cash generation capacity are attractive to investors. Low leverage reduces risk and interest costs. It also gives management flexibility to invest in growth projects or make strategic moves (like entering new markets) without financial strain. Moreover, Kri-Kri has been increasing dividends – for 2024, the Board proposes a €0.40 dividend per share, up from €0.35. That’s roughly a 2.7% dividend yield at current prices and a sign of confidence. Bulls see this as getting the best of both worlds: a growth company that also returns cash to shareholders and isn’t over-leveraged.
Favorable Global Trends: There are macro trends that play into Kri-Kri’s hands. Greek yogurt’s global popularity is still a tailwind – it’s considered a high-protein, healthy food, and Kri-Kri, being authentically Greek, can surf that wave internationally. Likewise, if health-conscious consumers look for indulgences with a healthier twist, Kri-Kri’s frozen yogurt ice cream could catch on. Additionally, Greece’s tourism growth indirectly benefits Kri-Kri (more tourists mean more ice cream and perhaps more exposure of its brand to foreigners). Bulls might also note that inflation appears to be moderating and some input costs (like energy) are off their highs, which could improve margins in 2025 if milk prices stabilize or fall.
In essence, the bullish thesis is that Kri-Kri is a growth stock in the food sector – it has a strong growth record, opportunities for continued expansion, and prudent management. At around 14× earnings, it’s not an expensive stock for this growth profile (more on valuation later). Shareholders could see earnings compound through both sales growth and eventual margin improvements once current cost pressures abate. If Kri-Kri hits €300m sales in 2025 and maintains margins, net profits will rise accordingly, potentially justifying a higher stock price. For long-term believers, the combination of market share gains, new markets (like maybe cracking the U.S. or more of Europe), and a history of weathering challenges suggests an attractive risk-reward profile.
Bearish Investment Case: Risks and Reasons for Caution
No investment is without risks, and there are aspects of Kri-Kri’s situation that give rise to a bearish case or at least warrant caution. Skeptics or cautious investors might point to the following concerns:
Margin Pressures and Cost Volatility: The flip side of Kri-Kri’s growth is that it hasn’t been translating into proportional profit growth lately. 2024 showed that soaring sales didn’t fully trickle down to the bottom line – gross profit was up only ~5% despite 19% higher revenue, and EBITDA actually fell. This highlights how sensitive Kri-Kri is to input costs, particularly milk. If global or regional milk prices remain high or spike further (due to supply issues, feed costs, etc.), Kri-Kri’s margins could be squeezed again. The dairy business is inherently volatile, and Kri-Kri, for all its strengths, cannot fully control raw milk or energy prices. The bearish view worries that the stellar margin recovery of 2023 might not be fully sustainable; indeed 2024’s margin slip could continue into 2025 if costs don’t ease. In short, earnings growth could lag sales growth persistently if inflationary pressures linger.
Reliance on Exports (and associated risks): While being export-driven is a strength, it also exposes Kri-Kri to numerous external risks. Over 50% of revenue comes from outside Greece now, meaning currency fluctuations, trade barriers, or economic slowdowns in key markets can impact the company. Expansion to new markets like the U.S. is costly and uncertain – penetrating the U.S. frozen dessert market will require marketing spend and there’s no guarantee of success against entrenched players. There’s also the risk that as Kri-Kri grows in Europe, it invites tough responses from big competitors (e.g., Danone or local dairy companies might aggressively defend market share or undercut prices in yogurt). The bear case questions whether Kri-Kri can maintain its export growth trajectory in the face of global competition and market dynamics that may not always be favorable.
Private Label: Low-Margin Growth? A significant part of Kri-Kri’s volume growth comes from private-label production. By nature, private-label contracts typically have lower profit margins than branded products, since the retailer squeezes the supplier to offer a low price. Kri-Kri’s own commentary notes that private label is growing faster, and its branded yogurt share fell in 2024. If this trend continues, Kri-Kri might essentially be trading margin for volume. Yes, they’ll sell more yogurt, but if a higher proportion is lower-margin private label, the profit impact is muted. Bears worry that Kri-Kri could increasingly become a behind-the-scenes contract manufacturer rather than a high-margin branded player. That could cap its profitability no matter how big it gets. In a scenario where economic conditions push more consumers to discount store brands across Europe, Kri-Kri might see robust sales but thinning margins – not a great combo for investors.
Competitive Challenges and Market Saturation: In Greece, Kri-Kri faces stiff competition from other dairy producers (from multinationals to local brands and co-ops). Its slight market share losses in 2024 show that competition is alive and well. In yogurt, Fage (producer of “Total” yogurt) and Danone are strong players; in ice cream, there are global giants and local brands. Abroad, Kri-Kri’s brand is relatively unknown; success in exports often hinges on being a niche Greek product, but larger dairy companies could replicate Greek-style yogurt or use their distribution clout to limit Kri-Kri’s shelf space. The bear case posits that growth will inevitably slow as markets saturate or competitors respond. The easy market share gains may be behind it, and each incremental gain will be harder. If Kri-Kri’s revenue growth slows down to, say, mid-single digits after 2025 (once it nears that €300m mark), the market might not be willing to keep paying a growth premium for the stock.
Execution and Investment Risk: Kri-Kri is in the midst of heavy capital investment – spending ~€25m in 2024 and similar plans for 2025. Such expansion carries execution risk. Building new capacity or entering new markets could hit snags – cost overruns, delays, or simply not yielding the expected returns. If the company invests in boosting production and the demand doesn’t materialize as projected, it could end up with excess capacity or underutilized assets. That would drag on returns and potentially force more aggressive pricing to use the capacity (again pressuring margins). Also, expanding product lines and geographies can stretch management and resources thin. The U.S. foray, while promising, could become a money pit if not executed carefully. Bears are essentially wary that Kri-Kri might be growing too fast or overextending, which could backfire if market conditions change.
Valuation and Market Sentiment: Finally, the bearish perspective might argue that Kri-Kri’s stock is no longer cheap, especially relative to other Greek equities. After a big rally (the stock price has risen in recent years along with earnings), Kri-Kri trades at a mid-teens P/E. For context, the Athens stock market’s average P/E is around 9.5×, so Kri-Kri carries a premium valuation in its home market. If the company hits any stumbling blocks – margin miss, slower growth, etc. – that premium could evaporate as investors rerate the stock. In a rising interest rate environment, markets are less forgiving of high valuations. So the risk is that any disappointment could lead to a sharper share price correction given the expectations built into the current price.
In summary, the bear case for Kri-Kri focuses on margin risk, competitive dynamics, and the possibility that growth might decelerate or prove less profitable than it appears. Kri-Kri has executed well, but it operates in a tough industry (commoditized products, powerful retailers, commodity inputs) where many things can go wrong. A prospective investor should weigh these risks against the growth story – if one believes Kri-Kri can manage costs and competition, the bull case prevails; if not, the bear case warns of thinner margins and potentially an overvalued stock.
Valuation: Checking the P/E and EV/EBIT Against Benchmarks
Now, how is Kri-Kri’s stock valued currently, and how does that compare to peers or market averages? As of April 2025, Kri-Kri’s share price is around €14.9. With FY 2024 EPS at €1.05, that puts the trailing P/E ratio at about 14.2×. On a forward basis (looking at 2025 expected earnings), the P/E is a bit lower – roughly 12.4× forward P/E, since earnings are projected to grow.
In terms of enterprise value, Kri-Kri’s market cap is roughly €490 million and with minimal net debt, the enterprise value (EV) is about €479 million. Using 2024 results, EV/EBIT works out to around 13× EV/EBIT, and EV/EBITDA around 11.4× EV/EBITDA. These multiples indicate that Kri-Kri is being valued as a growth company, not as an asset play or a low-growth utility.
Let’s compare to some benchmarks:
Greek Market: The average stock on the Athens Exchange trades at a much lower P/E than Kri-Kri. The overall Greek market’s P/E is about 9.5× currently, which means Kri-Kri’s P/E (~14×) is at a roughly 50% premium to the market. Even the Greek consumer staples sector tends to have single-digit multiples given the cautious sentiment historically. Part of this is because many Greek stocks are banks or cyclical companies with low valuations. Kri-Kri’s premium suggests investors are willing to pay up for its growth and stability (having a global growth story sets it apart). Still, relative to domestic peers, Kri-Kri is not “cheap.” It’s one of the pricier stocks on Athens in valuation terms – which as noted, could be a vulnerability if growth slows.
European Food Industry: Large European food companies generally trade at higher multiples than Greek stocks. For example, Danone, the French dairy giant, has a P/E around 22–25× as of April 2025. Nestlé, a global powerhouse, trades even higher (mid-20s P/E). Those are mature companies with slower growth but very defensive businesses, hence a “safety premium.” Mid-sized European food companies often trade in the mid-teens. So Kri-Kri’s ~14× trailing P/E is lower than these global peers, despite Kri-Kri’s higher growth rate. On an EV/EBITDA basis, the European Food Products sector average is roughly 7×, which makes Kri-Kri’s ~11× look high; however, that sector average includes many low-growth, lower-margin firms. If we consider more growth-oriented peers, Kri-Kri’s multiples might be in line or even lower. Thus, one could argue Kri-Kri is valued at a premium to the average Greek or food company, but at a discount to best-in-class European peers.
Greek Comparables: There aren’t many direct comparables in Greece (since Kri-Kri is unique as a listed pure-play dairy). But looking at other Greek consumer goods firms or mid-caps, valuations in the low-to-mid teens P/E are common for quality companies. For instance, a well-regarded Greek consumer company might trade at 12–15× earnings if it has growth potential. In that sense, Kri-Kri’s valuation is within the expected range for a “growthy” Greek mid-cap. Its EV/EBIT of ~13× might be a bit above the Athens mid-cap average, but not wildly so.
Valuation vs Growth Rate: Another angle is the PEG ratio (P/E to growth). With a forward P/E ~12.4 and expected earnings growth around 10% (just estimating, given ~12% sales growth and stable margins), the PEG is around 1.2. That’s a reasonable PEG for a food company – not a screaming bargain, but not high either (a PEG of 1 is often seen as fair value for steady growth). Kri-Kri’s PEG of ~1.3 was noted by one source, which aligns with moderate undervaluation or fair valuation.
In terms of EV/EBIT (enterprise value to operating profit), Kri-Kri ~13× again is higher than typical Greek stocks (many Greek industrials trade at, say, 8–10× EV/EBIT). But if we compare to, for example, European small-cap food companies or even some U.S. food stocks, 13× EBIT is not unusual. It reflects that Kri-Kri has both growth and decent margins.
Putting it all together, Kri-Kri’s valuation sits at a crossroads of Greek and European benchmarks. It’s more expensive than the average Greek stock by quite a margin (which is justified by its growth and international profile), yet it’s cheaper than major global dairy peers in terms of earnings multiple. Whether the stock is seen as expensive or reasonable probably depends on one’s confidence in the growth story:
If you believe Kri-Kri will continue to grow ~15% annually and maintain margins, then a 14× earnings multiple is quite undemanding – the earnings yield is about 7%, and those earnings are growing, plus you get a dividend yield around 2.5%. Compared to, say, a Danone at 24× with low growth, Kri-Kri could be seen as undervalued for its growth.
If you worry about the risks discussed (margins, competition), you might think 14× is too high for a company that could face headwinds. The Greek market historically had many stocks at single-digit P/Es because of perceived risk – from that lens, Kri-Kri might look pricey unless it delivers flawlessly.
In conclusion, Kri-Kri’s current valuation metrics (P/E ~14, EV/EBIT ~13) appear moderate in absolute terms and somewhat premium in relative terms. It’s not a dirt-cheap stock, but for a company with Kri-Kri’s profile, it can be argued as reasonable. Investors will likely watch upcoming results closely: if 2025’s growth comes through (hitting that €300m sales target with stable margins), the multiples could even compress further (making the stock cheaper on a forward basis) or the stock could rerate higher. Conversely, any miss and the stock could de-rate toward the broader market’s lower multiples. Thus, valuation is balanced – not obviously a bargain, but not outrageous given Kri-Kri’s mix of growth and profitability. For comparison, paying ~14× for Kri-Kri vs ~9–10× for the average Greek stock is a bet that Kri-Kri will deliver superior growth and resilience, which so far it has.
Final Thoughts
Kri-Kri’s FY 2024 results showcased a company that is firing on most cylinders – growing fast, expanding abroad, and managing to increase profits even amid cost headwinds. The backdrop of its recent history underscores management’s ability to navigate turbulence (like the 2022 inflation shock) and emerge stronger. As we look to 2025 and beyond, Kri-Kri is aiming high (with a €300m sales goal) and investing in the future with new capacity and markets.
For investors, Kri-Kri presents an interesting case: it’s a Greek small-cap with global growth ambitions, which is somewhat uncommon. The stock offers exposure to themes like the international appetite for Greek yogurt and the resilient demand for affordable treats (ice cream/yogurt) in both good and bad times. The company’s financial position is solid and it has proven its growth potential, but it also operates in a competitive, low-margin industry where execution is key.
In a bullish scenario, Kri-Kri continues its double-digit growth, keeps costs in check, and perhaps even expands margins once investments pay off – in which case the current valuation would start to look cheap and there could be significant upside. In a bearish scenario, cost pressures or competitive forces could erode its profitability, and growth might slow, which would likely weigh on the stock.
So far, management’s track record and current guidance tilt toward optimism. With a casual glance, one might just see a yogurt and ice cream maker; but a deeper analysis reveals Kri-Kri as a dynamic growth company bridging local heritage and international markets. As with a good Greek yogurt, it has a thick base (strong fundamentals) and a sweet topping (growth prospects) – but investors will have to taste for themselves whether it’s the right mix for their portfolio.
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